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Prediction for CME (2022-11-29T20:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-11-29T20:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22571/-1
CME Note: A partial halo CME seen to the SE in C2 and possibly starting to be seen very faintly in SSE in COR2A difference imagery starting after ~2022-11-29T20:38Z (it could be obscured in white light imagery by the SE streamer). The source appears to be a large, slowly developing S-shaped complex filament eruption centered around S20E25 seen in SDO 304 starting ~2022-11-29T14:00Z. The filament stretches from about N20E30 to S30E10 in GOES SUVI/SDO AIA 304 and around -30 to 2 degrees longitude in EUVI A 195. This CME may have been combined with arrival of CME with ID 2022-12-01T07:48:00-CME-001.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-12-04T06:00Z (-10.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022 11 30 07:30
Radial velocity (km/s): 320
Longitude (deg): 27E
Latitude (deg): 16S
Half-angular width (deg): 26

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Lawrence Howard

Lead Time: 87.10 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-11-30T14:54Z

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